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The Mispricing Game is a strategic guide to identifying and exploiting systematic pricing errors in Kalshi's MLB prediction markets.
Rather than focusing on picking winners, this book teaches readers how to recognize when market prices diverge from true probability. By analyzing crowd psychology, narrative bias, and structural inefficiencies unique to baseball, the book reframes trading as a process of probability assessment rather than outcome prediction.
Drawing on behavioral economics, market microstructure, and real-world trading logic, the book explains why favorites are consistently overpriced, why streaks mislead traders, and how reputation distorts contract pricing. It breaks down the mechanics of Kalshi contracts, explains how edge compounds over a long baseball season, and shows how disciplined traders extract value from crowd error.
This is not a betting guide. It is a probability-based framework for traders who want to understand how markets misprice uncertainty—and how to position themselves on the correct side of those errors over time.
Written for analytical thinkers, market participants, and decision-makers, The Mispricing Game provides a systematic lens for approaching prediction markets with discipline, clarity, and long-term edge.
